Belgian Grand Prix preview

The 2009 title chase took another twist at Valencia, with the advantage swinging back towards Brawn GP after its recent dip in form, and Rubens Barrichello scoring an emotional first Formula 1 victory in nearly five years.

But as the F1 circus moves from the rather characterless portside circuit to the classic Spa-Francorchamps venue this weekend, there are plenty of reasons to suppose the balance of power may change again.

Red Bull Racing’s desultory Valencia showing has left it with a mountain to climb over the remaining six races if it to haul in Brawn in the constructors’ championship and (particularly) Jenson Button in the drivers’ contest – so it must make substantial inroads this weekend, preferably with a one-two finish.

If everything goes according to plan for the Milton Keynes-based squad, such a result should be eminently achievable, for Spa’s flowing layout and abundance of medium- and high-speed corners could have been tailor-made for Red Bull’s RB5 chassis.

The last time F1 visited a similar high-speed circuit, at Silverstone in June, the RB5 was in a league of its own, and Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber annihilated the opposition.

A second factor favouring Red Bull is the likelihood that the ambient, track and therefore tyre temperatures will be much lower than they were in Valencia.

Chilly conditions stymied Brawn’s BGP 001 at Silverstone and the Nurburgring in particular, and Ross Brawn admitted last weekend that he was unsure whether the team had got on top of this problem since the sweltering Valencia heat made it hard to gauge.

Cool temperatures actively suit the RB5, which has shown a disturbing propensity for eating up its rear tyres in hot conditions – so the effect of any change in temperatures on the Brawn/Red Bull state of play is amplified.

Ironically there was a heatwave in Belgium’s Hautes Fagnes region last week, but ambient temperatures are back on their way down and forecast to drop below 20C over the weekend.


Often the fickle Ardennes weather plays a rather larger role than merely affecting tyre temperatures, of course, as we saw with the shower that triggered a dramatic conclusion to last year’s race.

At the time of writing, showers are predicted for Friday and Saturday, with race day expected to be dry – but Spa has a micro-climate all of its own and even short-range weather forecasts are notoriously unreliable.

The Red Bulls were mighty in monsoon conditions in Shanghai back in April, and two of Vettel’s three grand prix victories have come in the wet.

But given that it RBR expected to have a car advantage anyway, and that wet races always increase the risk of spins and carnage, you’d have to think the team fancies its chances without the help of Mother Nature.

On paper, then, Red Bull is the best bet to win at Spa – but lurking over the team is the spectre of reliability problems.

The RB5 has been more fragile than the Brawn all season, and after two engine failures in Valencia Vettel has now used up six of his eight Renault units allocated for the year.

If the eighth engine lets go before the end of the season, Vettel will have to accept a 10-place grid penalty for making use of a ninth power plant – a scenario team boss Christian Horner has admitted is “almost inevitable”.

That may happen sooner rather than later since the next two races, Spa and Monza, are the toughest on engines on the whole calendar.

With Eau Rouge taken comfortably flat-out, the section from La Source to Les Combes is now the longest continuous full-throttle stretch in F1, much of it uphill.

The big question is how much the engine concern will hamper Vettel’s approach to the remaining six grands prix, and whether the team will conclude that it makes Webber its only realistic title contender.

At least for this weekend – with such a strong chance of a Red Bull victory – it would make sense for Vettel to continue to race flat-out, and hope for the best; but in subsequent races the team may feel the need to detune the engine to prolong its life.

From Brawn’s perspective, Barrichello’s Valencia victory was both good and bad news since it made him Button’s closest rival in the points standings once again, ensuring that the Brazilian will fancy a title shot of his own and will not be amenable to playing a supporting role any time soon.

Although he actually extended his points lead over the Red Bull drivers, Button was thoroughly dissatisfied with his seventh place in Spain – and rightly so, since Barrichello showed Brawn had a car capable of winning.

What this weekend should reveal is whether Brawn’s improved form was largely down to the hot temperatures, or whether it has made underlying performance gains that will enable it to fight for victory at most of the remaining races.

While the fortunes of the two title-contending teams have ebbed and flowed in recent weeks, McLaren has transformed its performance in the most impressive fashion, with Lewis Hamilton dominating in Hungary and only narrowly missing out on a second consecutive win in Valencia.

The Woking team doesn’t expect to be quite as competitive at Spa, since high-speed corners are still not the MP4-24’s forte.

But the car has gained so much downforce with recent updates, particularly an improved twin-diffuser design, that it is sure to contend for points and possibly a podium.

Both Hamilton and team-mate Heikki Kovalainen love the circuit, but the Finn really needs to deliver a convincing race performance to boost his chances of retaining his drive for 2010.

Ferrari should not be discounted either.

Kimi Raikkonen has the best Spa record of anyone on the current grid, having won here with McLaren in 2004 and ’05 and then with Ferrari in ’07.

The laconic Finn seems to have found some good form at the moment, having finished second at the Nurburgring and third at Valencia, but reckons the team can forget about challenging for its first win of the year since it has stopped developing the F60 and moved its focus onto the 2010 car.

After struggling mightily in Valencia, Felipe Massa’s stand-in Luca Badoer has been given one more race to show he is worthy of a Ferrari drive.

Now that he has a full race weekend under his belt and is returning to a familiar circuit, the 38-year-old Italian feels sure he can make a big step forward; he certainly needs to, as Ferrari does not enjoy qualifying and finishing at the back of the grid, whatever the circumstances.

Renault’s new recruit Romain Grosjean did a solid job on his debut in Spain, and impressively set a (marginally) faster race lap than his double world champion team-mate Fernando Alonso.

That, plus the fact that he won last year’s GP2 feature race at Spa, should allow the young Frenchman to attack his second F1 weekend with confidence.